In times of uncertainty—especially during something as globally disruptive as a tariff war—the natural question for investors is:

“Where are the opportunities?”

To answer that, we must learn from history. Because while the headlines may feel dramatic, we’ve actually seen trade and tariff tensions many times over the last 50 years. So let's dive into the data.

Let’s look at a summary (from 1930–2025) of trade and tariff wars. If you study this historical table, you’ll see that only one trade war triggered both a bear market and a recession—the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.

👉 The market is down 17.6%.

So technically, we’re not in a bear market yet. But could we enter one? Absolutely. The coming weeks or months will tell.

Singapore has always benefitted from a rules-based global system where Most Favoured Nation (MFN) principles gave every country a level playing field—big or small.

But now, the U.S. wants to dismantle MFN and replace it with reciprocal tariffs.

This spells trouble for small economies like ours. Why?

Because we don’t have the bargaining power to retaliate.

As a result, our growth forecast has been cut by the Ministry of Trade and Industry:
From 1–3% to just 0–2% for this year.

Slower growth now. A possible recession later.

Let me be clear—this is not investment advice. I’m not licensed by MAS, and this is purely for learning purposes.

But here’s what I personally would do.

Even during uncertainty, I continue to:

• Dollar-cost average (DCA) and
• Value average into ETFs in my portfolio, including the S&P500
  

Now someone recently commented on my posts saying:

“Dude, Buffett sold ALL his positions in S&P 500 in March”

Let’s clear this up.

If you look at Warren Buffett’s holdings, the ETF VOO makes up only 0.01% of his portfolio—almost insignificant. It was probably purchased by one of his lieutenants, not Buffett himself.

Remember, Berkshire Hathaway’s job is to beat the S&P 500, not to mimic it. So why would he buy it?

So now the question is why does Warren Buffett kept recommending everyday retail investors to invest into S&P500?

Let’s look at the graph below. Despite:

• The Vietnam War
• Black Monday
• And multiple recessions...

…the S&P 500 has always recovered, and over the long run, it has delivered an average return of 10% per year, including dividends.

No bear market or recession lasts forever.

Recovery is inevitable. And often, the economy emerges stronger.

Aside from the S&P 500, here’s where I’m also looking:
DBS, OCBC, and UOB.

But I only consider them when their Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio is less than 1. Why?

Because that means the stock is undervalued—you’re paying less than the company’s net worth.

P/B Ratio = Share Price / Book Value Per Share

If you look at the graph below:

For example, during COVID in 2020, DBS’s P/B was 0.87.

During the Global Financial Crisis in 2009, it was 0.45!

Had you invested then and held long-term, you might have made 4–5X returns in just over a decade.

But remember:

• It must be a good business
• And you must buy it during a bad time

Before I invest, I always ask myself three key questions:

1. What should I invest in?
2. When should I invest?
3. Do I have the money?

In my upcoming live webinar, I’ll walk you through:

• How to navigate market volatility in spite of changes in global trade and interest rates policies
• How an all-weather portfolio of stocks, bonds, and ETFs can help you stay calm and thrive no matter the market direction
• How Cash-Flow Options Strategies (CFOS), modelled after Warren Buffett's principles of Value Investing, support prudent long-term value investing
• Actionable & Duplicable Step-By-Step Value Investing Framework on identifying on identifying and evaluating high-quality companies.